Japanese Election

[Arilou]

Okay, I've been reading The Economist and they have some comments on the japanese election...

My understanding is that Koizumi basically threw out a big portion of the LDP in order to get his mail-privatization strategem through, meanwhile the DPJ are advocating much more extensive reforms, normally they wouldn't stand a chance against the LDP (whom as the quip goes are neither liberal nor democratic) but Koizumi's stunt might mean that the DPJ has a bigger chance than previously. Or that was their analysis.

So, you guys who actually live there, what's your impression?

[Pierrot le Fou]

Okay, first a primer.

Since 1952 or so the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party, 自民党 in Japanese) have won every election and been in power all but two elections. While that may seem like an incredible landslide, and I guess it is, the LDP is filled with all sorts of factions who may as well be separate parties. In General, the government is controlled by old anti-reformers who want to maintain the status quo and help out their friends.

And increase bureaucracy.

And they generally suck. So during the 90's, after the bubble burst and people felt a need for a change in a recession, the SDP (Social Democratic Party, 社民党 in Japanese) won two elections, tried to push through reforms, but learned that the bureaucracy is too well entrenched, and without their support they couldn't do jack and squat. So they got booted out of power and are now a joke of a party.

An election or three ago, this guy named Okada made the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan, 民主党 in Japanese) and centered their entire election strategy on being an opposition party. This meant that they were just opposed to whatever Koizumi was doing while he made dumbass speeches and generally blew hot air about the evils of the LDP. This pretty-much came to a head during the Post Office privatization vote in Parliament, because despite being full of generally young potential reformers, the DPJ voted against the bill because Koizumi was running it. Fuckin' cretins.

So Koizumi was pissed mostly at the LDP because so many of them were defending old-school bureaucracy and basically kicked 'em out of the party if they weren't going to support reform. It's a REALLY ballsy move. A bunch of new splinter parties have formed making this a really interesting election to see. With only the reformers (or pro-reform) folk in the LDP, it's possible they could form a coalition with the DPJ if the DPJ's Okada gets his head out from his ass and looks around. Most likely it'll end up as a coalition government much like it was before if you ask me, with the LDP led by Koizumi having to take on a bunch of old-school codgers because he can't get a majority otherwise, and Okada is still being slimeball.

If the DPJ were elected, they wouldn't do well, since Okada doesn't have the charisma, the policy, or the brains to get anything done. He would have to ask what Koizumi WOULD do were he still prime minister, and then do the opposite.

So, yeah, I think that Koizumi is making a ballsy move that can either be a HUGE success for the reformers, or will be a disaster of sorts. Which is to say things will stay the same. Bear in mind that Koizumi has said that he doesn't plan to remain Prime Minister past 2006 or something, so this is really a freaky situation.

Here's to Koizumi Ghere!

BANZAI!

[Tamerlin]

Good write-up here: http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050908/7/26zen.html

[Pierrot le Fou]

And Koizumi Ghere kicks unholy ass, picking up 93 seats, and gaining an absolute majority without the need for a coalition with the Komeito party (though they still seem to be forming a coalition). Here's to 296 seats to push through Post Office Reform...

BANZAI!

[Invictus]

Here's to Koizumi and his funky hair! Here's to postal reform! Banzai all around! :D