Ok, they’ve scared me! Now what?

[ruaidhri]

The news media screams, avian flu, bird flu, pandemic, possible 150,000,000 victims worldwide. Ok, they’ve scared me! Now what?

Last Tuesday, October 4, 2005, President Bush expressed his concern over the possibility of the bird flu mutating to allow its spread from human to human. He warned that the Federal Government would quarantine any area of the country suffering a breakout. He even mentioned military enforcement of the quarantine.

Scary, isn’t it?

I’ve been reading and hearing about this threat for awhile now. From recent news reports, and the willingness of the government to scare the public, I am now sitting straight in may chair and taking notice.

What exactly is the Avian Bird Flu H5N1 Influenza A? Well, it currently is only transmissible from birds however health experts expect that it will soon mutate to permit human to human transmission. If that happens, the world is facing a pandemic of horrific proportions. Here’s what the CDC has to say about bird flu.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

Below is a link to a Time Magazine article about how the catastrophic 1918 influence was also a bird flu. My aunt used to live across from a large Catholic cemetery. It was really quite beautiful and park like. We often would take walks in the cemetery and look at the grave stones. Whole families died in 1918 from that outbreak of influenza. It attacked not only the very young and the very old and the infirm. It killed people of all ages even healthy, young adults. It spared no demographic. My father was born in 1898 and my mother in 1902. They remembered the deaths and the fear. Now, scientists have discovered that it was exactly the type of flu we’re now facing that attacked the world in 1918 and killed twice as many people as were killed in World War I.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1114634,00.html

Of 100 people recently infected with the virus (bird to human transmission), 60 died. That’s a 60% death rate. That means for every five people infected three died.

Scary, isn’t it?

Currently, 65 nations are meeting in Washington DC to discuss global reaction to an outbreak. They are seeking to stop the spread with a quick response of antiviral drugs.

We don’t have any immunization for this new threat. We’re mostly vulnerable. I question if antiviral drugs would stop anything. Perhaps, it won’t be long before we see people walking around with surgical masks covering their noses and mouths. Certainly, businesses are already in the making to sell masks and over the counter drugs to scared people. Will anything protect us?

Yes, I’m scared. I’m scared not so much for myself but for my family. I’m 64. I want to live many more years but I fear death for those I love far more than for myself. It’s the living, not the dead that bear the pain. What will I do? What will I ask my wife and sons to do? First, I’ll follow public health recommendations. I’ll certainly wash my hands frequently and avoid putting them anywhere near my nose, mouth or eyes. I’ll carry a hand antiseptic with me and use it liberally. If necessary, I’ll be one of those people with a face mask. Of course, I’ll encourage my family to take the same precautions.

I really hope this fear is groundless. I hope we quickly develop a immunization from this horror. I hope this become yet another crisis avoided.

[setrict]

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/05/1918.flu.pandemic.ap/index.html?section=cnn_us

Apparently they've recently recreated the human<->human transmitable version from the 1918 epidemic, and believe that modern antiviral medications should work against that type of strain. I don't know how much faith I'd put in 'should' though.

It is really a scary situation, because it killed more people that WWI - and that was back before intercontinental flights were common, so things would spread much more quickly now.

I always knew birds were evil.

[Jon885]

I've been thinking about this for quite some time and have accepted what will happen. Me worrying about it won't make it not happen. Anyway I would say you lived a full life ruaidhri. Well you lived longer than a lot of people at least. I would be happy to live till 60 since so many people die young.

[erbiumfiber]

Bird flu was breaking out all over last year and the year before, even in Japan. Haven't heard about any cases this year, although that may be only because there was nothing that impacted Japan.

The big issue is China because they are not "transparent." Birds and humans live in quite close contact there under less than sanitary conditions.

The other issue is the migratory birds spreading it around (most likely how Japan got it). That's a bit scary. Still, there's a lot of mutating left to do if we're to have a global pandemic.

I remember what was called the "Hong Kong flu" in 1968 or so- I was very sick and so was my father. I'm pretty sure that originated from a bird. So that part is nothing new.

Still, I think it's being hyped overly much...

[Frankey-eh]

You should have see us when SARS broke out. We ate with disposable gloves on the plane ride to Japan.

And when we were living in Guangzhou (just three hours away from HK) we actually forced a restaurant to buy disposable cups and chopsticks for us because the ones they were using had too much stain.

Also... on the meat issue:
when we first heard of mad-cow disease, we started drinking SOYmilk instead and avoided eating beef.

when we heard of bird flu, we avoided chickens.

So our meat was mostly from pigs...until we heard about pig disease...

And now, apparently there's disease in rice as well.

*sigh* soon, we can just live off... air? wait, that has air pollution.

[ruaidhri]

Rika, thank you for your response. It really put the whole issue of fear into focus. I needed that.

Yes, I’m 64 and yes I’ve already lived a long life. That doesn’t mean that I don’t want to live even longer. Most of all it doesn’t mean I don’t want my wife and sons to live long lives. But, fear can’t protect me or my wife or my sons.

Many people believe 64 is old. When I was 20 I thought 30 was old. When I actually turned 30 the saying was “never trust anyone over 30.” I was truly depressed. A friend even said, “Damn, in 10 years you’ll be 40.” That really put me in the dumps. But, I lived on and realized that I hadn’t changed when I turned 30. The next 10 years went by quickly. My 40th birthday came and went. I then realized that 40 wasn’t old, 50 was. When I turned 50, I realized I was wrong, 50 wasn’t old, 60 was. Now, I’m 64 and I no longer know what constitutes “old” because I’m still the same person I was when I was in my 20’s. So, I’m no way near ready to give up the ghost.

Regardless of age, we all face death with every breath. We can only continue to put one foot in front of the other. We can’t let fear invade our souls because to do so would not be living.

Again rika, thank you for your response.

[eyez0nme]

You should have see us when SARS broke out. We ate with disposable gloves on the plane ride to Japan.

And when we were living in Guangzhou (just three hours away from HK) we actually forced a restaurant to buy disposable cups and chopsticks for us because the ones they were using had too much stain.

Also... on the meat issue:
when we first heard of mad-cow disease, we started drinking SOYmilk instead and avoided eating beef.

when we heard of bird flu, we avoided chickens.

So our meat was mostly from pigs...until we heard about pig disease...

And now, apparently there's disease in rice as well.

*sigh* soon, we can just live off... air? wait, that has air pollution.

ahhahhahahahhaha, that is absolutely hilarious.

[Pierrot le Fou]

With modern medicine, the impact of the flu would be far less methinks. We can bathe relatively easily in ice, we can take aspirin to lower the fever, and we can generally do a few things to help ourselves out. It would destroy many of the densely populated countries with little or no sanitation or healthcare, but at the risk of sounding callous, the loss of people from that country wouldn't hit as hard as the slew of industrial country deaths during the 1918 pandemic (economically speaking). It would be a horrible worldwide crisis, but I don't think it would end up competing with the 1918 flu either in scope or in fear for anyone typing on this forum (due to a certain standard of living that using the internet tends to entail).

[NERD]

With modern medicine, the impact of the flu would be far less methinks. We can bathe relatively easily in ice, we can take aspirin to lower the fever, and we can generally do a few things to help ourselves out. It would destroy many of the densely populated countries with little or no sanitation or healthcare, but at the risk of sounding callous, the loss of people from that country wouldn't hit as hard as the slew of industrial country deaths during the 1918 pandemic (economically speaking). It would be a horrible worldwide crisis, but I don't think it would end up competing with the 1918 flu either in scope or in fear for anyone typing on this forum (due to a certain standard of living that using the internet tends to entail).

The problem with SARS few years ago (it's already few years ago, hot damn) was that they couldn't figure out how it would be transmitted from the infected, they did not have a cure/couldn't develop a cure in time, not to mention that they could only diagnose it when the symptoms would develop, and they didn't know how to prevent it.

If any of these problems happen with Avian flu, then it may turn out to be an epidemic. Quaratining the sick and rushing to find the cause of the disease would be the best answer in order to contain it.

And the way that penicillin, not to mention many antibiotics have been ineffective with many bacterias, I wouldn't count to much on modern medicine either. They had more than a decade to come up with a way to prevent AIDS, but still haven't.

[Zslash]

Here is the complete list of shit to worry about

http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm

Have fun

[Pierrot le Fou]

The thing that kills people with the flu is the brain cooking. We have access to tons of ice now, unlike 87 years ago. We have access to thermometers in all our houses to know when we should stop popping the aspirin alone, and hope into an ice bath to bring down the fever.

Those are two HUGE life-saving measures that just weren't possible 100 years ago, that even a near dirt-poor family can handle on a budget.

[ruaidhri]

You’re correct Pierrot le fou. Modern people do have ready access to a host of medicines including aspirin to combat the flu and high body temperatures. We can readily get ice and use it to lower body temperatures. But, even with all these advances of the past 87 years, of 100 people recently sickened by bird flu (bird to human transmission), 60 died. That’s 3 out of 5 people.

I agree, we, in the industrialized world, will take more precautions. We will act faster to quarantine infected areas. We will quickly administer medicines and treatments. We will probably not be as seriously impacted as the third world. It is then a matter of degree. The question then is what is acceptable.

Even a smaller scale pandemic will have a devastating impact on our economies. People, businesses, governments will all curtail travel and with it commerce. At the first sign of illness, any illness, people will be encouraged to stay home from work. Fear and stress will bear down on those remaining in the work force increasing their own susceptibility to infection. Businesses and people would suffer and fragile economies could crumble.

What we need is quick and effective development and distribution of vaccines. I believe our huge drug industry is up to this task if given adequate direction and protection by our governments.

[more cheerios]

All I have to say is, "SARS"

Sars freaked the hell out of people. Nobody wanted to come to Toronto, they were all afraid of Sars.

... But did you know that it is more likely that you could die from influenza than it is from Sars? In fact, that year, more people did die from influzena compared to Sars. All Sars seriously affected was the eldery and newborn infants.

[Invictus]

Exactly. A death toll of 150 million means that 1 in 40 people would die from it. a horrific death toll, to be sure, but you're still more likely to die of cancer than bird flu.

[Bruti]

Timely placement of quarantines just might be able to stop a pandemic before it even starts. Patients of today have a better chance of staying alive than they had just after WWI. Hell, there were nowhere near discovering antibiotics, not to mention more sophisticated medicine.

I think I will go to work just as usual as I do today even if something goes awry. May be willing to avoid public transport, though. (Damn microbes may force me to buy a bike. That's the most serious thing I expect.)

Therefore, I don't think that the more developed countries would lose that many inhabitants, although the elderly and the children may suffer it. The problem, as usual, is in the Third World, where medicine and other countermeasures are not as widely available, but hey, I would be surprised if they got the necessary humanitarian help if hell broke loose there.

[NERD]

Personally, I think there's no point in the mass media going around and crying wolf with this Avian flu scare. Granted, if it happens, the effects will be devastating, but there's no point in scaring people about it. Remember the Y2K scare?

[Trump]

Well concerning your 60% fatality rate, where was this? I bet it wasn't anywhere near where modern health care facilities were readily available.

[MeneerDijk]

Personally i don't really care much for these 'scary' virusses. The media wants us to believe the human being is very fragile, and that we will die tomorrow if we didnt die today. I just say: enjoy your life and stop worrying about stuff that might kill you, because you will probably be killed by the thing you least expected. You don't know when, you don't know how. just live every day like it's the last.

[Frankey-eh]

All Sars seriously affected was the eldery and newborn infants.

Really? I thought it was the doctors... because they had no protection against SARS-infected people who came to see them. It was the saddest thing....dying in the line of duty... like how majority of the people who died in 9/11 were firemen...

[scan2001]

Most doctor and nurse didn't die from SARS. Some got sick but mostly elderly people or people with respiratory problems die from the virus.

[Pierrot le Fou]

The bird flu victims for the most part were in third/second world countries (Vietnam, Thailand, China), young or old, and didn't have immediate access to medicine or any concept of what was hitting them. The first world would have news broadcasts constantly on what to do if you're diagnosed, easy access to a whole boatload of stuff, and doctors for the worst hit.

Really, it wouldn't even be close to 3/5 in the US if it were the same strain. I'd be shocked if it got even 1/10 healthy adults. That would be devastating. 2/100 would probably be devastating.

[Kustom]

I think sadly, outbreaks of deadly diseases are usually found where there is overpopulation, and there's no question in my mind the earth has reached that point now... Sooner or later, one of those diseases will slip through the net. Because of modern medecine it won't be as bad as the spanish influenza, which in turn wasn't the black plague, but it still will hit us harder than anything we've seen in our lifetime.

My great-great grand-parents died from the spanish influenza, so I guess my genes are not up-to-date. I focus on enjoying life while I can and don't waste time worrying about inevitable natural threats more than I should... There are plenty of man-made hazards we have more control on to deal with.

[Eibhilin]

The Avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus is a serious threat regardless of where you live, third world or first. Undoubtedly, more people would survive an outbreak with modern healthcare and medicines. But, how many people could our hospitals hold? How much modern medicine will be available and effective against the disease? Who will get it and who won’t?

Keep in mind that we don’t have a vaccine for Avian flu. If we’re able to develop one we don’t have the potential to manufacture enough doses in time to stop that speeding train. If we don’t experience three deaths for every five cases then what is less scary, one out of ten, one out of a hundred?

The Avian Flu is a new viral strain. We don’t really have a prevention strategy. True, many of the available drugs can battle illness but will they be effective against the Avian Flu? We’re told that Tamiflu works but because the Avian Flu is still mutating there are strains where it doesn’t.

So, what can we do if the disease does appear? Eat healthy, exercise, get enough sleep and generally take good care of our bodies. Take vitamins. Stay home from work and school if you do get sick with anything. Don’t take chances, contact your doctor. Wash your hands frequently. Keep unwashed hands away from your eyes, nose and mouth. If infection rates in your community become extreme, shield your nose mouth and eyes.

If the Avian Flu does mutate to enable human-to-human transmission there will be a huge loss of life worldwide. We are not invulnerable. We don’t really have effective weapons in our arsenal. Quarantine, even government enforced, may become the primary response.