Russia and Georgia are going to start shooting at each other

[Karthak]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm
Wonder how this will go.

[blank slate]

Just saw this on CNN. The international community will probably put enough pressure on Russia for them to back off.

[whispering]

Wonder what would have happened if Georgia was already a NATO country. ATM they've been promised an invitation or something like that.

Just saw this on CNN. The international community will probably put enough pressure on Russia for them to back off.

That wount have any effect. I highly doubt Russia would ever bend on international pressure.

[Mastiker]

Those silly communists.

[Fermented Yeast Paste]

Way to go Georgia for giving Russia a legitimate reason to invade. They're fucked.

[Clear.tranquil]

I would like to see America self-righteous its way into this conflict to promote peace.

We are a peaceful country =)

[haterllnation]

Georgia asked the United States for help. I wonder what will go down? Bush has talked to Putin but nothing has been said about what came of it.

Edit: I guess we are in Georgia's corner.

[DizBukHaPeter]

The conflict might be over quick, Russian tanks in S. Ossetia capital Tskhinvali. Georgian airforce already decimated, leaving their troops vulnerable.
Georgians are screwed, America spent the last fifty years trying to avoid war with Russia. We wont throw it all away on a place nobody's ever heard of especially when Russia is in the right.

[RoxFontaine]

Oh, no. More war.

Clear - Dead on.

[Karthak]

We wont throw it all away on a place nobody's ever heard of especially when Russia is in the right.
Well, according to international law Georgia is in the right.

[DizBukHaPeter]

Didn't the Georgians start shooting at Russian Peacekeepers?

[whispering]

Didn't the Georgians start shooting at Russian Peacekeepers?

Depends who you ask.

[Relentless]

if we get involved in this one, i will probably enlist. 3rd war's the charm. funny enough, i've been learning russian for the last 4 months

[Moai]

Georgia asked the United States for help. I wonder what will go down?
Probably nothing. Georgia already asked for permission to withdraw its 2,000 troops from Iraq, which the US already gave signs that will grant, but that's pretty much it.

There could be some sort of pressure by the international community, and likely the US and European envoys would try arranging a cease-fire, but a UN bluehelmets' intervention would be vetoed by Russia in the SC, and it's unlikely NATO will step up. On the other hand, Russia's response to Georgia's assault on South Ossetia was surprizingly fast; considering the spying crisis between these two countries in the recent past, it wouldn't be strange to think that Russia already knew about the invasion (which looked hardly unpremeditated on its own) and set up a trap, using it as an excuse to storm the country. Be this the case, Russia will likely have already predicted some possible scenarios of foreign meddling, and its deployment of the Black Sea Fleet is proof enough that they're not just reacting accordingly to take South Ossetia back.

[ミュー]

Russia will thrash them, and the West can shake fingers until hands fall off but will not do anything. Georgia pissed off the wrong big dog, and now it's going to pay in blood.

[erbiumfiber]

Ha, ha, ha...caught a sound bite from George Bush in Bejing explaining that Georgia is a sovereign nation, yada, yada...

But I guess Iraq and Afghanistan weren't sovereign nations, so it was OK for us...

Moral high ground...not!

[Moai]

Ha, ha, ha...caught a sound bite from George Bush in Bejing explaining that Georgia is a sovereign nation, yada, yada...

But I guess Iraq and Afghanistan weren't sovereign nations, so it was OK for us...

Moral high ground...not!
Definitly. On the other hand, Russia supports separatist movements in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but reprehends those in Kosovo and Chechnya. It's all about in which side of the proxy wars you want to be.

[Arctic_Slicer]

I've been following news on this for the last couple of days from a variety of sources from CNN to RT to get a broader view of the conflict from different biases.

They so called "peacekeepers" are Russian soldiers and have been inciting the Georgians for some time to give Russia an excuse to invade. Russia claims to be protecting it's citizens but these people are only citizens because Russia gave them the paperwork to make them so over the last few years as a move to cause further unrest in the area. It's no coincidence it happened on a day when all of the world leaders were distracted by the Olympics. This seems to have been planned for quite awhile. Also Russia does that like having former soviet countries such as Georgia and Ukraine turning into pro-western democracies. It even though the Soviet Union became divided; hardliners like Putin feel that these countries are still in Russia's sphere of influence and should be pro-Russia.

Important facts:

In the last few years due to rising energy prices and the fact that Russia has no shortage of Oil or Natural gas; Russia has plenty cash in the treasury to fund it's ambitions.

The United States of America on the other hand is approaching a federal deficit of $10 trillion and literally can't a afford risking a war with Russia. What's more is that a significant amount of their military is already deployed in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan. Not only is the United States of America broke they are also lacking the man power and other military resources to even stage an effective war against Russia.

Western European countries are heavily dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. The BTC pipeline that runs from Azarbaijan, through Georgia, to Turkey is the only source of non-Russian oil and natural gas that comes to western Europe. A few days before these hostilities broke out there was a terrorist attack in Turkey that shut down this pipeline. The Russian invasion of Georgia and bombings targeting the pipeline threaten to keep it out of commission longer. With that Pipeline not in use countries like the United Kingdom are getting 100% of their oil and natural gas from Russia. If the United Kingdom or the EU wanted to intervene Russia could stop supplying their countries with oil causing major shortages and likely stopping any military action from those countries dead in their tracks.

Ironically the country that posses the greatest threat to Russia is on it's own border. China remains the only real power that could effectively oppose Russia at this point. However China has remained pretty neutral between the EU, USA, and Russia and really wouldn't have much to gain by involving itself it this conflict. In the unlikely event that they would oppose Russia; China is currently hosting the Olympic games. China of course would follow the Olympic tradition and stand down all hostilities during the staging of the games; making for a nice distraction.

All of the means Russia pretty much gets a blank check to do it's worst to Georgia. This is most certainly a power grab by Russia to reassert itself as both a military and economic superpower. Not only to try and reestablish it's former borders but also to monopolize Europe's oil supplies. Just follow the money

Russia tries to claim that Georgia was indiscriminately killing innocent civilians, including women and children in the thousands as some kind of "ethnic cleansing". Georgia was bombing schools and hospitals and bakeries and trying to totally obliterate the city to make it totally unlivable. Even if this is all true and Georgia was committing the "mass-genocide" that Russia claims, it still wouldn't justify their invasion of Georgia. If this was the case they should and could have appealed the the UN. These would be very condemnable acts by the UN and if these crimes were of the magnitude Russia claims the evidence against Georgia would be mounting. It's likely the UN would have approved a Russian request to send soldiers possibly assist down there to stop such madness. It also wouldn't have damage Russia's reputation near as much as the actions they did take. The course of action that Russia has taken shows that Russia is likely exaggerating it's claims of "genocide". Russia didn't have much to justify their invasion so they just went in without warning and while the rest of the world was distracted by the Olympics no less in an effort to seize power.

Also This conflict also deals a black-eye to the neo-con agenda. If we weren't trying "spread democracy" throughout the world and "imposing democracy" in countries like Iraq we might be in a much better position to "defend democracy" in countries like Georgia. While the neo-cons were going around exaggerating the threat of tiny countries like Iraq or Iran who "might have" or "might be trying to build" nuclear weapons; they totally ignored big countries like Russia who "do have" nuclear weapons and do pose an actual threat to our country.

Anyway one can only hope that these current events don't turn out to be some kind of Sarajevo event that drags the entire world into war.

[blank slate]

So is Russia trying to grab all of Georgia and absorb it back in, or are they trying to take back those breakaway regions?

[Moai]

Russia tries to claim that Georgia was indiscriminately killing innocent civilians, including women and children in the thousands as some kind of "ethnic cleansing". Georgia was bombing schools and hospitals and bakeries and trying to totally obliterate the city to make it totally unlivable. Even if this is all true and Georgia was committing the "mass-genocide" that Russia claims, it still wouldn't justify their invasion of Georgia. If this was the case they should and could have appealed the the UN. These would be very condemnable acts by the UN and if these crimes were of the magnitude Russia claims the evidence against Georgia would be mounting. It's likely the UN would have approved a Russian request to send soldiers possibly assist down there to stop such madness. It also wouldn't have damage Russia's reputation near as much as the actions they did take. The course of action that Russia has taken shows that Russia is likely exaggerating it's claims of "genocide". Russia didn't have much to justify their invasion so they just went in without warning and while the rest of the world was distracted by the Olympics no less in an effort to seize power.
Of course they could lay low and play the UN cards; being an influent country at the SC, there would be no trouble at all victimizing the citizens of South Ossetia and turning the world against Georgia. But this Georgian invasion was everything Russia asked God for. More than Russia, i think Georgia used the Olympic Games window to take back South Ossetia and Abkhazia, they just didn't expect Russia's answer to come so quickly (even thought they should, duo to the numerous cases of russian spyies captured in the country)

Georgia went completelly pro-West during the Saakashvili administration, going for a NATO seat and sending their newly and highly reformed army to Iraq. That, alongside with Saakashvili's inflamatory nationalistic rhetoric and the many recent crisis the two countries have had in the recent past, made it quite realistic the idea of Georgia trying to take its rebelling provinces back by force; an idea that was quite obvious to Russia and Abkhazia, which were just waiting for the chance, for all the reasons you so keenly appointed. In the midst of all this are the poor citizens, being used as a excuse by both sides to justify their little ambitions

So is Russia trying to grab all of Georgia and absorb it back in, or are they trying to take back those breakaway regions?
God only knows. They could be just answering Georgia's raid, although that's unlikely. They could be using this as an excuse to spit on the West's face, and passing a message to fellow ex-republics that trying a US-NATO approach won't make them any safer. They could be trying to break the Saakashvili government, and perhaps installing a more pro-Russia administration. Or they could be going for a complete attachment of the country to within its frontiers. It's impossible to predict thus far

[Arctic_Slicer]

It seems that the fighting is over for now:

Defiant Russia Halts Operations in Georgia (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/12/world/main4342171.shtml)

I'm not going to post the whole article here so I recommend you check the link.

President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt Tuesday to Russia's military operation in Georgia, but his country remained defiant in the face of mounting international criticism of the action against its neighbor.

"The security of our peacekeepers and civilians has been restored," Medvedev said. "The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses. Its military has been disorganized."

The Russian president, however, said he ordered the military to defend itself and quell any signs of Georgian resistance.

Although it's a possibility that the fighting could start up again it's good news that it has at least stopped for the time being. Hopefully the peace will last. What the lasting effects on the region and Russia's relationships abroad, however remain to be seen. It's unlikely that everything will return to the "status quo".

[blank slate]

Apparently, the fighting hasn't stopped. The Georgians are claiming that the Russians are continuing to attack them.

[Moai]

Well, it's hard to tell what is really happening, watching it on the internet. Yesterday was a day full of question marks, with the news agencies all concentrated in Tbilisi and obtaining information via phone calls (that is, to the areas that still have the infrastructure that allows that), so we're pretty much dependent of official reports from both governments.

Georgia suffered a huge embarassment yesterday appealing for any international intervention, saying Gori had been taken by the russian forces and that they were marching towards Tbilisi, both claims later proved to be false. On the other hand, the person that called for the end of conflicts was Medvedev, but we all know Putin's the one pulling the strings on this one. Furthermore, Medvedev's announcement came shortly before he met with Sarkozy in Moskow, so the timing could have been used to pass a good image of a country that stepped back before being told to. That being so, doesn't rule out further invasions in the near future, perhaps incited by a Medvedev x Putin internal conflict.

Nonetheless, this was Russia's best move from the very start. Occupying Georgia would be too costly and troublesome, and they wouldn't gain much more than they had already gained, aside from further international displeasement. They pretty much showed the whole world they could easily storm his little former republics without any outside intervention, and showed these countries how much worth (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/world/europe/11scene.html?_r=2&hp&oref=login&oref=slogin) is a US and NATO support, all that inside their "legal excuse" of mediated retaliation.

[whispering]

They pretty much showed the whole world they could easily storm his little former republics without any outside intervention, and showed these countries how much worth (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/world/europe/11scene.html?_r=2&hp&oref=login&oref=slogin) is a US and NATO support, all that inside their "legal excuse" of mediated retaliation.

Offtopic, but I think NATO is useless, and i wish my country will never join that false hope of security. When you share boarders with Russia number 1 defence strategy is to keep good relations with Russia. If that fails, have a big enough army to make it too costly for Russia to think invading. That can only be acheeved (in here) with mandatory military service. You have to be extremly naive to think any country would want to start WW3 over one small countrie. Just my 2 cents.

As for the current affairs, i still dont know who is right, or is anyone. Too much propaganda to filter to get a good idea whats happening...

[blank slate]

Was watching CNN earlier tonight and saw two guys who are experts on the topic. Apparently, they believe that this is a first step towards Russia regaining a foothold in its former territories.

[Moai]

Was watching CNN earlier tonight and saw two guys who are experts on the topic. Apparently, they believe that this is a first step towards Russia regaining a foothold in its former territories.
I doubt Russia will regain its former empire back, or even attempt to. There's only so far the country can push without outside intervention, although it's quite likely of Russia to broaden its sphere of influence by financing opposite groups in former republics, as it could (and most definitly will) in Ukrania.

Conserning this specific case, Abkhazia has enough touristic beaches, villas and wine production to support itself as a country, economically speaking that is. South Ossetia, on the other hand, does not. If they are to de juri separate from Georgia, their only option is to attach itself to Russia, which would be, if i'm not mistaken, the country's first border review since the end of the Cold War.

[blank slate]

Yeah, I don't think they were talking about absorbing them back in. But gaining influence in those countries to make them lean towards Russia, rather than backing the US.

[volomavi]

Huh. http://www.slate.com/id/2197514/?from=rss

[Riinuka]

The two regions are apparently very pro-Russia already.. IMO, I'm thinking at the very least, South Ossetia will be absorbed into Russia, and Abkhazia will either be fought over between the two, or break off alone. I don't see either going cleanly back to Georgia. *sigh*

[whispering]

The two regions are apparently very pro-Russia already.. IMO, I'm thinking at the very least, South Ossetia will be absorbed into Russia, and Abkhazia will either be fought over between the two, or break off alone. I don't see either going cleanly back to Georgia. *sigh*

Georgians used to be the dominant people in Abkhazia, before the ethnic cleansing in the 90's. From wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_cleansing_of_Georgians_in_Abkhazia) "The estimated total number of killed in the process of ethnic cleansing ranges from 10,000 to 30,000, which does not include the numbers of missing, wounded and tortured people. More than 250,000 ethnic Georgians were expelled from their homes."

Cant see them giving it up easily.

[volomavi]

Michael Binyon from Time

The cartoon images have shown Russia as an angry bear, stretching out a claw to maul Georgia. Russia is certainly angry, and, like a beast provoked, has bared its teeth. But it is the wrong stereotype. What the world has seen last week is a brilliant and brutal display of Russia's national game, chess. And Moscow has just declared checkmate.

Chess is a slow game. One has to be ready to ignore provocations, lose a few pawns and turn the hubris of others into their own entrapment. For years there has been rising resentment within Russia. Some of this is inevitable: the loss of empire, a burning sense of grievance and the fear that in the 1990s, amid domestic chaos and economic collapse, Russia's views no longer mattered.

A generalised resentment, similar to the sour undercurrents of Weimar Germany, began to focus on specific issues: the nonchalance of the Clinton Administration about Russian sensitivities, especially over the Balkans and in opening Nato's door to former Warsaw Pact members; the neo-conservative agenda of the early Bush years that saw no role for Russia in its global agenda; and Washington's ingratitude after 9/11 for vital Kremlin support over terrorism, Afghanistan and intelligence on extremism.

More infuriating was Western encouragement of “freedom” in the former Soviet satellite states that gave carte blanche to forces long hostile to Russia. In the Baltic states, Soviet occupation could be portrayed as worse than the Nazis. EU commissioners from new member states could target Russian policies. Populists in Eastern Europe could ride to power on anti-Russian rhetoric emboldened by Western applause for their fluency in English.

Nowhere was such taunting more wounding than in Ukraine and Georgia, two countries long part of the Russian Empire, whose history, religion and culture were so intertwined with Russia's. Moscow tried, disastrously, to check Western, and particularly American, influence in Ukraine. The clumsy meddling led to the Orange Revolution.

Georgia was a different matter. Relations were always mercurial, but Eduard Shevardnadze, the wily former Soviet Foreign Minister, knew how to keep atavistic animosities in check. Not so his brash successor, Mikheil Saakashvili. From then on, hubris was Tbilisi's undoing.

It was not simply the dismissive rhetoric, the open door to US advisers or the economic illiteracy in forgetting dependence on Russian energy and remittance from across the border; it was the determined attempt to make Georgia a US regional ally and outpost of US influence.

Big powers do not like other big powers poaching. This may not be moral or fair but it is reality, and one that underpins the Security Council veto. The Monroe Doctrine - “hands off the Americas” - has been policy in Washington for 200 years. The US is ready to risk war to keep out not only other powers but hostile ideologies - in Cuba and Nicaragua.

Vladimir Putin lost several pawns on the chessboard - Kosovo, Iraq, Nato membership for the Baltic states, US renunciation of the ABM treaty, US missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. But he waited.

The trap was set in Georgia. When President Saakashvili blundered into South Ossetia, sending in an army to shell, kill and maim on a vicious scale (against US advice and his promised word), Russia was waiting.

It was not only Mr Saakashvili who thought that he had the distraction of the Olympics to cover him; the Kremlin also knew that Mr Bush was watching basketball, and, in the longer term, that the US army was fully engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. From the day that the Russian tank brigade raced through the tunnel into South Ossetia, Russia has not made one wrong move. Mr Bush's remarks yesterday notwithstanding, In five days it turned an overreaching blunder by a Western-backed opponent into a devastating exposure of Western impotence, dithering and double standards on respecting national sovereignty (viz Iraq).

The attack was short, sharp and deadly - enough to send the Georgians fleeing in humiliating panic, their rout captured by global television. The destruction was enough to hurt, but not so much that the world would be roused in fury. The timing of the ceasefire was precise: just hours before President Sarkozy could voice Western anger. Moscow made clear that it retained the initiative. And despite sporadic breaches - on both sides - Russia has blunted Georgian charges that this is a war of annihilation.

Moscow can also counter Georgian PR, the last weapon left to Tbilisi. Human rights? Look at what Georgia has done in South Ossetia (and also in Abkhazia). National sovereignty? Look at the detachment of Kosovo from Serbia. False pretexts? Look at Ronald Reagan's invasion of Grenada to “rescue” US medical students. Western outrage? Look at the confused cacophony.

There are lessons everywhere. To the former Soviet republics - remember your geography. To Nato - do you still want to incorporate Caucasian vendettas into your alliance? To Tbilisi - do you want to keep a President who brought this on you? To Washington - does Russia's voice still count for nothing? Like it or not, it counts for a lot.

[mugen]

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/2487/truthgr9.jpg

[Arctic_Slicer]

Russia recognizes independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia (http://news.yahoo.com/story//ap/20080827/ap_on_re_eu/georgia)

This move is only going to further escalate the conflict after it finally seemed be cooling off. It's too early to say what the final implications for this decision will be but it certain that it will further strain Russian relations with the western world.